Pahalgam Attack: The Attack That Shook Kashmir
The tranquil valleys of Pahalgam, a picturesque tourist destination in Indian-administered Kashmir, were shattered on April 23, 2025, when armed militants launched a brazen assault on a group of tourists. The attack, one of the deadliest in recent years, left 26 people dead, including women and children, and dozens more injured.
The Resistance Front (TRF), a Kashmiri separatist group, quickly claimed responsibility. However, Indian security forces allege that the TRF is merely a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist organization with a long history of attacks in India.
This incident has not only reignited tensions between India and Pakistan but has also pushed the two nuclear-armed neighbors toward their most dangerous confrontation in decades.
The Pahalgam Attack: A Detailed Timeline
How the Attack Unfolded
- Location: The Pahalgam attack militants targeted a busy tourist campsite near the Lidder River, a popular spot for trekkers and pilgrims visiting the Amarnath Yatra route.
- Method: Attackers, dressed in military-style uniforms, used automatic rifles and grenades, firing indiscriminately before escaping into nearby forests.
- Casualties: Among the 26 killed, 22 were Indian tourists, 3 were local guides, and 1 was a Nepalese national. Over 40 others were injured, some critically.
Who is The Resistance Front (TRF)?
- The TRF emerged in 2019 after India revoked Kashmir’s special status.
- India claims it is a rebranded version of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), funded and trained by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
- Pakistan denies these allegations, calling TRF an indigenous Kashmiri movement.
India’s Immediate Response
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi convened an emergency meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS).
- Home Minister Amit Shah announced a massive military crackdown in Kashmir, with 500 additional troops deployed in Pahalgam.
- Intelligence agencies were directed to trace the attackers’ cross-border links.
India’s Retaliation: Economic, Diplomatic, and Strategic Measures
1. Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)
- What is the IWT? Signed in 1960, the treaty governs water sharing of six rivers between India and Pakistan.
- Why is this significant? India controls the upstream flow of three key rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) that supply 80% of Pakistan’s freshwater.
- India’s move: New Delhi announced it will “hold the treaty in abeyance”, meaning it could divert or block water flowing into Pakistan.
Can India Actually Cut Off Pakistan’s Water?
- Short-term: No, because:
- It’s the melting season (May-Sept), so rivers are naturally full.
- India lacks large-scale storage dams to block all water immediately.
- Long-term: Yes, if India builds new reservoirs or diversion projects, which could take 2-3 years.
2. Diplomatic Expulsions and Border Closures
- Pakistan’s High Commission in New Delhi was ordered to reduce staff from 55 to 30.
- Indian military advisers in Islamabad were expelled, and Pakistan retaliated in kind.
- Attari-Wagah border, the only major land crossing, was shut indefinitely.
3. Economic Sanctions
- Trade suspended: India banned all imports from Pakistan, including cement, textiles, and fruits.
- SAARC visa exemptions canceled, barring Pakistanis from easy travel to India.
Pakistan’s Retaliation: War Warnings and Escalation
1. Threat to Revoke the Simla Agreement (1972)
- This treaty mandates the peaceful resolution of disputes between India and Pakistan.
- If revoked, it could lead to open military confrontation.
2. Airspace Ban and Trade War
- Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian flights, disrupting essential aviation routes.
- All trade via third countries (e.g., India-Afghanistan through Pakistan) was halted.
3. “Act of War” Declaration
- Pakistan’s Defense Minister stated:“Any attempt to steal our water will be met with full military force. We will not hesitate to defend our survival.”
Historical Context: Why This Crisis is Different
Past Attacks That Almost Led to War
| Year | Attack | India’s Response | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Indian Parliament Attack | Full military mobilization (Operation Parakram) | Near-war, global mediation |
| 2008 | Mumbai Attacks (26/11) | Diplomatic freeze, no military action | No treaty suspensions |
| 2016 | Uri Attack | Surgical strikes in PoK | IWT threatened but not acted upon |
| 2019 | Pulwama Attack | Balakot airstrike | IWT again threatened, no suspension |
Why 2025 is More Dangerous
- First-ever IWT suspension – A red line crossed.
- Pakistan’s economic crisis – Water blockade could collapse its agriculture.
- China’s role – If Pakistan escalates, will Beijing back it militarily?
Global Reactions: Who’s Taking Sides?
1. United States
- Urged “restraint” but blamed Pakistan for “harboring terrorists.”
- Offered intelligence support to India.
2. China
- Called for “dialogue” but warned India against “unilateral actions.”
- May provide economic aid to Pakistan if water crisis worsens.
3. United Nations
- Secretary-General António Guterres offered mediation.
- UNSC emergency meeting likely if tensions escalate further.
What Happens Next? 3 Possible Scenarios
1. De-escalation (40% Chance)
- Backchannel talks (via UAE/Qatar).
- World Bank mediates IWT dispute.
2. Limited Military Conflict (50% Chance)
- Border skirmishes along LoC.
- Cyber warfare (India-Pakistan have hacked each other before).
3. Full-Scale War (10% Chance)
- If Pakistan’s water supply is cut, it may launch strikes on Indian dams.
- Nuclear threats could follow.
The Most Dangerous Standoff in Decades
The Pahalgam attack has pushed India and Pakistan closer to war than at any point since the 1971 conflict. With water, terrorism, and national pride at stake, the world watches nervously as two nuclear powers engage in a high-stakes showdown.
Will diplomacy prevail, or will the Indus River become a battlefield? The next few weeks will decide.
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